UFC 251: “Fight Island” Preview and Picks
Updated: Jul 25, 2020
(John “MoneysBags” Casale)
UFC 251 Bets
First Play:
Marcin Tybura (-120) v Maxim Grishin
Despite losing 4 of his last 6 and not having a finish since 2017, Tybura has great value here. Tybura has faced top level competition within the heavyweight division, with all 4 losses coming against fighters who were ranked in the top-15 or are currently ranked there, as well as a loss to former champ Fabricio Werdum. Grishin, on the other side, typically fights at light heavyweight, so expect Tybura to be the stronger man. Grishin is also making his UFC debut on short notice, a combination that has resulted in a victory less than 35% of fights. Between Tybura’s level of competition and Grishin making his debut on short notice, Marcin Tybura -120 is a fantastic pick
Second Play
Jessica Andrade (+160) v Rose Namajunas
A rematch of the Strawweight title fight in May of 2019 that saw Andrade slam KO Namajunas to secure the belt. This will be Rose’s first fight since that loss, while Andrade is coming off a first round KO loss to current Strawweight champion Zhang Weili. Despite the line, Andrade holds a significant advantage over Rose in the two main aspects that judges score on the cards, as Andrade lands over 2.5 more strikes per minute than Rose and 1 more takedown on average per 15 minutes. These two statistics make Andrade +160 a stellar underdog pick
Prop of the Day
Volkan Oezdemir by Decision (+375) v Jiri Prochazka
At nearly 4 to 1 odds, Volkan Oezdemir to win this fight on the scorecards is insane value. Oezdemir may be the toughest fighter at 205 apart from Jon Jones, as he’s only been finished by punches once, to former division champion Daniel Cormier. On the flip side, Jiri Prochazka makes his debut after a 7-fight winning streak under the Rizin promotion as all 7 wins came by way of first round knockout. Expect Jiri to empty the gas tank trying to secure an exciting first round finish on his debut and Volkan Oezdemir’s heavy leg kicks to wear Prochazka down and for him to dominate the later 2 rounds.